Well. Here we are on the second-to-last day of March and the primary race is still happening. I can honestly say that I didn't expect it to last this long; I thought one candidate or the other would get a knockout blow in one of the early races, or on Superdupertuesday, or in the Potomacs, or on March 4. But the tenacity of Hillary Clinton in staying in this race long after Barack Obama, were he in Clinton's position, would have faced a tsunami of demands to drop out, is impressive.

Unfortunately, much as I loathe the contemporary practice of psychoanalyzing political figures, this race really does come down to exactly why Hillary Clinton is still in the race and what her motivations are. Now, I'm not going to join the growing chorus of people who are saying she should drop out, but in all honesty, I think that if she doesn't absolutely clean up in Pennsylvania, winning by more than 20%, she should seriously consider it.

So why is Hillary Clinton still in this? Let's go through the possibilities.

• She thinks she can still win a contested nomination. She's indicated that she wants to take this all the way to Denver where she'll challenge the DNC not seating the illegitimate Florida and Michigan delegates. Now, there's an extent to which every candidate says that they're in it all the way - Edwards said this after South Carolina before promptly dropping out - but for the moment, we should take her at her word. The problem is that for her to win the nomination would require her to convince the superdelegates to overturn the pledged delegate count and likely the popular vote as well - which would split the party in two and probably lead to her defeat in November. End result: Hillary Clinton still isn't President. And she's a smart enough politician to realize this.


• She wants a deal. It's not without precedent that a primary opponent get something out of the eventual winner; the most famous of these might be Earl Warren who threw his support to Ike in 1952 and was nominated to be Chief Justice. This drawn-out primary fight might be Hillary Clinton's way of getting leverage for another job - perhaps the next vacant slot on the Supreme Court, perhaps governor of New York, perhaps Senate Majority Leader. Of all the options, I like this one the most; as long as she isn't undermining President Obama's legislative agenda, she could be a major long-term force in progressive politics. Much as I may loathe her from time to time, I really do think she could be a really effective legislative, judicial, or executive powerhouse for years - or decades - to come.


• She's going out gracefully. Just one more win in Pennsylvania to make her supporters and fundraisers feel like she isn't being chased out of the race and she'll quit. This doesn't hold water for me, though, mostly because of the complete lack of grace she's demonstrated even over the past few weeks. Her husband's veiled attack on Obama's patriotism, her own attempt to resuscitate the Wright kerfluffle, and reports of Rove-esque attempts to disenfranchise en masse Obama-supporting delegates in Texas make it clear that going out gracefully doesn't seem to be in the cards.


• She's waiting for Obama to self-destruct. Over and over, the Clinton campaign insinuated to anyone who would listen that Obama wasn't "vetted"; my guess is that the "vetting" of which they spoke was the Wright flap, which Barack handled with the greatest of aplomb and dexterity. Or maybe they've got something else up their sleeve. Or maybe they're just waiting for him to slip up and say something damningly stupid - which would be very uncharacteristic of him. Either way, this is a longshot, and doesn't seem to be happening for the same reason the "going out gracefully" tactic doesn't seem to be happening - the Clinton campaign is attacking all over the place, and the last thing the Clintons would want would be to be blamed for an Obama self-destruction.


• This is really, really personal. Of all the possible options, this is the one that scares me the most. It's no secret that Hillary Clinton has wanted to be president for a long time, nor is it any secret that she'll probably be too old to run in 2016, current geriatric candidates notwithstanding. This was supposed to be her turn; the establishment was on her side and set up February 5 to be her knockout blow. But along comes this upstart junior Senator with a lot of hope, an amazing organization, an inspiring candidacy, and the skill to take advantage of her campaign's (unforced) errors and steps on her dream. If this has gotten personal for her - if she's as pissed at Barack Obama as many of her supporters on the blogs are - this is only going to get uglier. And if it gets too much uglier, especially if it becomes clearer (as it will) that Obama's going to be the nominee, she's going to be persona non grata in the Democratic Party.


• She's running for 2012. A month ago, I would have dismissed this offhand as tinfoil hat stuff, but now I'm not so sure. She and her husband have certainly been effusive in their praise for John McCain. Is it possible that she's trying to kneecap Barack so that he loses the general in 2008 and she can ride in on the gleaming white horse in 2012? At the moment, I'd still consider this a shaky possibility at best; not only is it likely that a conspiracy like this would come out sometime between 2008 and 2012, but I think that if she kneecaps Barack and he loses this year, she'll get the blame and we'll see a fresh face at the top of the ticket in 2012. But stranger things have happened...

So there it is. Your March 30, 2008 State of the Race report. Thoughts?

Labels: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Politics, Primary Election 2008